An accelerated transition to Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) technologies, through enabling policies globally, can play a pivotal role in achieving the goals underlined in the Paris Agreement
The crucial UN climate summit (COP29) which witnessed the participation of nearly 200 countries ended recently in Azerbaijan with rich nations pledging to contribute USD 300 billion per year by 2035 to developing economies to combat the catastrophic effects of climate change. Intense negotiations were held to reach this finance deal and to advance the Paris Agreement’s goals of holding the rise in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
A lot, however, depends on decarbonizing the transport sector to reach the objectives underlined under the Paris Agreement. Current estimates attribute 21% of global CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels to transportation. Report suggests that global road transport emissions had reached 6.3 gigatons of CO2 (GtCO2) in 2023, surging far ahead of their previous high in 2019. In that, 1.3 billion passenger vehicles worldwide emitted the bulk of that CO2 last year.
In this scenario, accelerating enabling policies that help transitioning to Zero-Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) holds a lot of promise and aligns with the path of reaching Paris-agreement compatible emission reduction targets. According to a report “Driving Progress on the Zero Emission Vehicle Transition - COP29 Progress Update”, the global transformation to ZEV has shown significant progress since the last UN climate summit.
“Adopted and proposed policies, as well as announced ZEV targets, are projected to push the road transport sector almost halfway towards a Paris-compatible CO2 emissions trajectory compared to 2021,” it says. The report adds that achieving this trajectory will require reaching 100% ZEV sales for new light-duty vehicles in major markets by 2035 and for new medium- and heavy-duty vehicles by 2040, with other countries following suit within a 5- to 10-year timeframe.
“An accelerated global ZEV transition coupled with complimentary measures, including avoid-and-shift policies, maximizing the efficiency of new internal combustion vehicles, and decarbonizing the electricity and hydrogen used in zero-emission vehicles, will bring us closer to a well-below 2 °C emissions pathway,” said the report prepared by the Accelerating to Zero Coalition, in partnership with CALSTART/Drive to Zero, Clean Energy Ministerial, Climate Group, First Movers Coalition, and Smart Freight Centre, as empowered by the Breakthrough Agenda.
The report highlights successful case studies from diverse stakeholders—including governments, automakers, truck manufacturers, and fleet owners and operators—to showcase the tangible impact of these initiatives and their contributions towards a Paris-aligned emissions pathway.
It adds that 54 countries representing 30% of global light-duty vehicle sales, have adopted binding policies or set voluntary commitments to achieve 100% ZEV sales on a Paris-aligned timeline. At the same time, 38 countries representing 27% of global medium-and heavy-duty vehicle sales have set voluntary commitments to achieve 100% ZEV sales on a Paris-aligned timeline.
Fig 1: An electric vehicle is plugged into a charging station in Bilbao, Spain, February 15, 2023. REUTERS/Vincent West/File Photo
Transitioning to Zero Emission Vehicles: The Story So Far Globally
Governments across the world have taken significant strides in transitioning away from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and have been at the forefront in enacting robust and enabling policies to solidify these commitments. While some have adopted ZEV mandates, others have relied on introducing or strengthening their emission standards.
Giving the example of the United Kingdom, the report said the country has adopted a new ZEV mandate, which sets targets for car and van manufacturers to increase their sales of ZEVs. ”The targets start at 22% of car sales and 10% of vans sales in 2024, rising to 80% for cars and 70% for vans in 2030,” it says.
Similarly, the United States strengthened its federal greenhouse gas emission standards that asks light-duty vehicles to cut CO2 emissions by 50% by 2032 and sets emission reduction targets for medium-duty vehicles by 40%, compared to 2027. The US has also set new targets for heavy-duty vehicles, including a 25% reduction in emissions for sleeper cabs and a 60% reduction for light-heavy vocational vehicles.
The European Commission has also finalized new CO2 emissions standards for heavy- duty vehicles, requiring a 45% reduction by 2030, 65% by 2035, and 90% by 2040. “These and other adopted policies, along with other market developments, are expected to avoid nearly 23 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 emissions between 2024 and 2050. Proposed policies and voluntary ZEV targets, if implemented, could lead to additional CO2 reductions of up to 13 Gt between 2024 and 2050,” the report said.
The Road Ahead for Transformation To Zero Emission Vehicles
Governments around the world are playing a key role in this transition by fast forwarding a number of policies that help scale up the adoption of ZEVs. These policies include “regulations promoting the transition to electric vehicles, financial incentives for consumers and businesses, and charging infrastructure investments”. A crucial role in this transformation is also being played by emerging economies, which have become a critical driver for Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption.
“India’s EV sales grew by over 200% in 2023, driven by government incentives and expanding charging infrastructure. Several government initiatives in India, including purchase incentives under the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles FAME II scheme, supply-side incentives under the Production Linked Incentive, tax benefits, and the Go Electric Campaign, have stimulated demand for EVs,” the report said, adding that other countries are “actively addressing key market barriers” to EV adoption.
It is worth mentioning that India has also recently launched the PM Electric Drive Revolution in Innovative Vehicle Enhancement (PM E-DRIVE) that aims to introduce targeted approaches to facilitate this transition. With an outlay of Rs 10,900 crore for two years, the scheme not only aims to streamline the buying process of EVs for the consumers, but also paves way for integrating electric vehicles in the health sector by deploying e-ambulances.
At the same time, global automakers are also leading from the front and “spearheading a global shift” towards zero-emission light-duty vehicles. Although their paths are riddled with challenges, including supply chain issues, evolving technologies and geopolitical tensions, key automarkers, who have signed the “ZEV Declaration”, have committed to ambitious electrification targets, signaling a promising future for EVs and a declining reliance on ICE vehicles.
Elaborating on commercial vehicle electrification, the report said, “Many leading corporations are actively engaging in offtake agreements and strategic investments to facilitate the widespread adoption of zero-emission truck technologies.” In this regard, it also highlighted India’s burgeoning electric truck market, mentioning the “launch of a pilot project spearheaded by EV100+ members JSW Steel, IKEA, and Flipkart.”
“The project advances the adoption of electric trucks in routes with a high concentration of fleet vehicles, underscoring the vast potential for growth and innovation within the commercial vehicle segment in emerging economies,” it said. Reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement, to a large extent, depends on the decarbonization of the transport sector and transitioning to ZEVs can help realize this vision.
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