Electrification of last mile delivery fleets will drive 25% of EV sales in India by 2025

Food and e-commerce delivery companies are making ambitious transition plans

Electric vehicles are fast emerging as the preferred choice among commercial fleets, particularly for last mile delivery in the food and e-commerce sectors. A key reason for this is the recognition of declining total cost of ownership of EVs against ICE vehicles in delivery fleets, thereby leading to lower operational costs in the long run.

Some of the biggest names in the Business to Consumer (B2C) concerns, such as Zomato, BigBasket, Amazon, Flipkart, Swiggy, and many others, are actively switching to EVs. This will present significant opportunities for growth and expansion to the EV ecosystem.

Fig 1 - Flipkart’s electric three wheelers for last mile delivery © Flipkart stories

An all electric future for LMD fleets is closer than expected

A report by BCG consulting predicts that by FY 2025, 25% of EV sales in India will come from electrification of last mile delivery fleets across all forms of vehicles. The figure below shows that electric two, three and four wheelers (delivery vans, not cars) will experience growth in absolute numbers by up to 140%, 25% and 20% respectively, from 2022 to 2025. Also, their market shares are predicted to expand. On average, EVs could constitute roughly 25 - 30% of all last mile delivery fleets in India by 2025.

Fig. 2: Expanding market share of delivery EVs | Boston Consulting Group, 2023

Over the next 5 years, last mile deliveries are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15 - 20%, with food delivery services alone projected to grow at a CAGR of 30%. This will lead to expanded delivery fleets, which are already causing significant air pollution and carbon emissions. Despite being the smallest part of the journey in delivering a product from factory to home, last mile delivery actually accounts for nearly half of the total delivery emissions! This means it’s equal to what is emitted to get the product from the factory to the warehouse, typically by ship or plane. Their electrification is critical for India to ensure zero emission transport.

What’s catalyzing the transition to electric

Reducing Total Cost of Ownership of EVs for fleets: Along with the environmental benefits of switching to EVs, companies are recognising the TCO benefits of an electric fleet. The BCG consulting study shows that the total cost of ownership of a high speed electric two wheeler is 30 - 35% less than an ICE two wheeler, and a mid speed electric two wheeler is 35 - 40% less than an ICE motorcycle. Similarly, an electric three wheeler is 20 - 25% cheaper to own and operate than a diesel version, and 10 - 15% cheaper than a CNG version. The TCO of an electric four wheeler SCV is 15 - 20% lower than diesel variant and 5 - 10% less than CNG. This is a primary driver for expansion of EVs in last mile deliveries.
Consumer demand: 78% of urban India’s residents (across six major cities) feel that last-mile delivery vehicles are a significant contributor to air pollution, and that switching to EVs would be a much needed step in the right direction. Companies are recognizing the importance of transitioning as a corporate social responsibility and its brand value among its customers.
Proactive government policies: India has established a supportive policy landscape with 26 state EV policies, a national level FAME II scheme and NITI Aayog’s Shoonya initiative that aims to drive EVs in ride hailing and delivery fleets. Hundreds of companies have joined the initiative across last mile delivery, e-commerce companies, automakers, and even corporates like Coke owning large vehicle fleets.

Fig 3 - Zypp Electric is India’s leading tech enabled EV-as-a-service platform that provides carbon free last mile delivery services to local merchants and e-commerce giants, with a fleet size of 7,000 electric two wheelers and growing.

How OEMs can accelerate a transition to EVs in commercial fleets

The vehicle choices of e-commercial and delivery platforms influence the EV product market, making it crucial for OEMs to engage with delivery companies and understand their requirements, thereby creating products that suit their needs. There is a growing demand for fit to purpose electric two wheeler that account for delivery needs such as good storage, pick-up and heavy loading.

And lastly, OEMs must also invest in the EV ecosystem itself by expanding access to charging stations — India only had 5254 public charging stations in February 2023 — and invest in installing more fast chargers for quick recharges. The latter is critical as delivery vehicles only generate revenue when in service. And as an additional, foresighted step, forging partnerships with financial bodies to offer low-interest loans and lower down payments, as well as compensating EV owners for returning used/damaged battery packs, will help bridge the gaps much sooner.

EV Segment	Demand Incentives
Electric 2-wheeler	Purchase incentive of Rs. 5,000/- per kWh of battery capacity; Maximum incentive of Rs. 30,000/- per vehicle Incentive for scrapping and de-registering old ICE two wheelers registered in Delhi: Up to Rs. 5,000/- of the incentive shall be reimbursed by the GNCTD All delivery service providers shall be expected to convert 50% of their fleet operating in Delhi to electric by 3V March, 2023 and 100% by 31st March, 2025.
E-Autos	Open permit system shall be applicable & be given on first-come-first-serve basis; no cap on permits issued to e-autos in Delhi Purchase Incentive of Rs. 30,000/- per vehicle shall be provided by GNCTD Interest subvention of 5% on loans and/or hire purchase scheme for the purchase of an e-auto Incentive for scrapping and de-registering old ICE auto rickshaws registered in Delhi: Up to Rs. 7,500/- of the incentive shall be reimbursed by the GNCTD The auto-rickshaw permits linked to the de-registered ICE vehicle can be surrendered and exchanged for an e-auto permit at no additional cost.
E-rickshaws & E-carts	Purchase Incentive of Rs. 30,000/- per vehicle shall be provided by GNCTD Interest subvention of 5% on loans and/or hire purchase schemes Buses
E-buses	Pure electric buses shall constitute at least 50% of all new stage-carriage buses (i.e., for all public transport vehicles with 15 seats or more) procured for the city fleet including for last-mile connectivity Induction of 1000 pure electric buses by 2020
Goods Carriers	A Purchase Incentive of Rs. 30,000/- to the first 10,000 e-Carriers to be registered in Delhi after the issuance of this policy. Interest subvention of 5% on loans and/or hire purchase schemes. Incentive for scrapping and de-registering old ICE goods carriers registered in Delhi: Up to Rs. 7,500/- of the Incentive shall be reimbursed by the GNCTD Goods carriers (i.e., L5N and N1 type)
Four wheeler	Purchase Incentive of Rs. 10,000/- per kWh of battery capacity Maximum incentive of Rs. 1,50,000/- per vehicle to the registered owners of the first 1000 e-cars to be registered in Delhi after the issuance of this policy

Vehicle Segment	Battery Size in KWH (approx.)	State Subsidy Amount(Rs.)	Total State Subsidy (Rs.)	Maximum ex-factory price to avail incentive (Rs.)
Electric Two wheeler	2 KWH	10000/- per kWh	20000/-	1,50,000
Electric Three wheeler	5 KWH	10000/- per kWh	50000/-	5,00,000
Electric Four wheeler	15 KWH	10000/- per kWh	150000/-	15,00,000

Sr No	Vehicle segment	Number of EVs	State subsidy
1	2W	100	Rs.10,000/- per Kwh of battery capacity subject to a maximum of Rs.30,000/- per vehicle.
2	3W	50	Rs.10,000/- per Kwh of battery capacity subject to a maximum of Rs.50,000/- per vehicle.
3	4W	50	Rs.10,000/- per Kwh of battery capacity subject to a maximum of Rs.2,00,000/- per vehicle

Sr. No	Owner of PCS	Subsidy
1	Retail Outlet of Oil Marketing Companies	15% of the cost of putting up Public Charging Infrastructures and Stations will be reimbursed by the State Govt. in the form of subsidy/ incentive.
2	Local Entrepreneurs	25% of the cost of putting up Public Charging Infrastructures and Stations will be reimbursed by the State Govt. in the form of subsidy/ incentive

Sr No	Vehicle segment	Ceiling for Early Bird	2023 – 2027
1	2W	35	172
2	3W(E-Rickshaw/ E-Cart)	10	40
3	3W	10	40
4	Car(Including Taxis)	40	167
5	Bus	11	49
6	E-4w ([CV, Stage Carriage/Maxi Cabs)	10	41
Total	–	116	509

Electrification of last mile delivery fleets will drive 25% of EV sales in India by 2025

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5 kWh

Sr No	Vehicle Segment	Subsidy (Whichever Is Lower)	Maximum ExShowroom Price to Avail (INR)
1	Two-Wheeler	10% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 15,000	1,50,000
2	Three-Wheeler – e Rickshaw / e-cart	10% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 30,000	3,00,000
3	Three-Wheeler	10% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 50,000	5,00,000
4	Car	10% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 2,50,000	25,00,000
5	Bus	25% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 50,00,000	2,00,00,000
6	E-4w ([CV, Stage Carriage/Maxi Cabs)	10% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 3,00,000	30,00,000

Sr No	Vehicle Segment	Subsidy (Whichever Is Lower)	Maximum ExShowroom Price to Avail (INR)	No of EVs to be subsdised
1	Two-Wheeler	20% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 60,000	1,50,000	28
2	Three-Wheeler – e Rickshaw / e-cart	20% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 60,000	3,00,000	10
3	Three-Wheeler	20% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 1,00,000	5,00,000	10
4	Car	20% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 5,00,000	25,00,000	33
5	Bus	50% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 1,00,00,000	2,00,00,000	11
6	E-4w ([CV, Stage Carriage/Maxi Cabs)	20% of the Ex-Showroom Price or INR 6,00,000	30,00,000	9
Total				101

Sr. No	Classification of EV	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	2026-27	Total
1	2W	2,000	8000	20,000	54,000	85,000	1,69,000
2	3W	200	800	2000	4,000	10,000	17,000
3	4W(Non Commercial)	100	400	1400	3,000	7,000	12,000
4	4W(Commercial)	10	40	100	300	650	1,100
5	Buses	10	25	65	200	600	900
	Total						2,00,000

Vehicle Category	Incentive	Maximum Incentive	Number of Electric Vehicles to be incentivized
e-Bicycle	Upfront: 25% of Cost of Bicycle	Rs. 3,000	First 25,000 Bicycle purchased during the policy period
e-2W	Upfront : Fixed Battery: Rs. 5,000/kWh Swappable Battery: Rs. 3000/kWh Scrapping : Rs 5,000	Rs. 30,000 Rs. 15,000 Rs. 5,000	First 10,000 vehicles registered during the policy period
e-Cart	Upfront : Fixed Battery: Rs. 5000/kWh Swappable Battery: Rs. 3000/kWh Retrofit Kit: 15% of cost	Rs. 30,000 Rs. 10,000 Rs.10,000	First 1000 e-Carts registered during the policy period
e-Autos	Upfront : Fixed Battery: Rs. 5000/kWh Swappable Battery: Rs. 3000/kWh Retrofit Kit: 15% of cost Scrapping : Rs 7,500	Rs. 30,000 Rs. 15,000 Rs. 15,000 Rs. 7,500	First 1000 e-Autos registered during the policy period
e-Goods Carrier L5N	Upfront : Fixed Battery: Rs. 5000/kWh Retrofit Kit: 15% of cost Scrapping: 15,000	Rs. 50,000 Rs. 15,000 Rs. 15,000	First 1000 Goods Carrier L5N registered during the policy period
e-Goods Carrier N1	Upfront: Fixed Battery: Rs. 5000/kWh Retrofit Kit: 15% of cost Scrapping: 15,000	Rs. 80,000 Rs. 25,000 Rs. 15,000	First 1000 Goods Carrier N1 registered during the policy period
4 W- e-Cars (Personal)	Upfront: Fixed Battery: Rs. 5,000/kWh Scrapping: 7000	Rs. 1,50,000 Rs. 7,000	First 2000, 4 W- e-Cars (Personal) (including Hybrids as defined in FAME II) registered during the policy period. Applicable only for vehicles with ex showroom price below INR 20 lakhs
4 W- e-Cars (Commercial)	Upfront: Fixed Battery: Rs. 10,000/kWh Scrapping: 7000	Rs. 2,00,000 Rs. 7,000	First 1000, 4 W- e-Cars (Commercial) (including Hybrids as defined in FAME II) registered during the policy period

Vehicle Category	Early Bird Incentive	Maximum Early Bird Incentive
e-Bicycle	Rs. 2000	Rs. 2,000
e-2W, e-Cart, e-Autos, e Goods Carrier (L5N and N1), e-4W (personal & commercial)	Rs 3,500/kWh	Rs. 50,000

Category	Incentive	Maximum Incentive
Private Charging	Infrastructure Incentive: Grant on purchase and installation of charging equipment	Rs. 6,000	Only for the first 30,000 private chargers installed during the policy period.
Public Charging	Reimbursement of GST paid 100% reimbursement of GST paid on the Fast Charging/Swapping Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) procured by private enterprises/individual	Rs. 50,000	Only for the first 50 fast charging /Swapping EVSE installed during the policy period. (Will not be applicable on Chargers under Central Subsidy)
	Upfront electricity infrastructure: Upfront cost on infrastructure for bringing power supply to Electric Vehicle Charging Station	Rs. 5,00,000	Only for the first 50 Public fast Charging/Swapping Stations installed in the state during the policy period. (Will not be applicable on Chargers under Central Subsidy)
	Electricity Duty Exemption: 100% Electricity duty exemption for Public Charging and Swapping stations	For policy period	For policy period

Sr. No	Vehicle segment	Incentive available	Number of vehicles to be incentivised	Maximum incentive per vehicle
1	e-2W (L1 & L2)	INR 5000/kwh	1,00,000	10,000
2	e-3W autos (L5M)	INR 5000/kwh	15,000	30,000
3	e-3W goods carrier (L5N)	INR 5000/kwh	10,000	30,000
4	e-4W cars (M1)	INR 5000/kwh	10,000	1,50,000
5	e-4W goods carrier (N1)	INR 5000/kwh	10,000	1,00,000
6	e-buses* (SRTu)	10% vehicle cos (ex factory)	1000	20,00,000

Road Tax / Vehicle Registration Fees	Manufactured within the State	Manufactured outside the State
Exemption on Road Tax	100% exemption for first 10,000 buyers 75% exemption for 10,001-15000 buyers 25 % exemption after 15000 buyers upto policy period	25% upto policy period
Exemption from Vehicle Registration Fees	100% exemption for first 10,000 buyers 75% exemption for 10,001-15000 buyers 25 % exemption after 15000 buyers upto policy period	25% upto policy period

S No	Type of PCS/SPCS	Incentive amount	Maximum Incentive available per PCS/SPCS	Max number of PCS/SPCS to be incentivised
1	Slow	60% of the cost	INR 10,000	15,000
2	Moderate/Fast	50% of the cost	INR 5,00,000	500
3	Solar Based fast#	70% of the cost	INR 7,00,000	500

Type of Unit	Max Limit	Max Admissible Subsidy
Micro	30% of FCI	Rs 2 Cr
Small		Rs 7 Cr
Medium		Rs 15 Cr
Non MSME		Rs 30 Cr

Criteria	Threshold Value
Min. top speed	40km/hour
Min. acceleration	0.65m/s2
Max. electric energy consumption	Not exceeding 7kWh/ 100km
Warranty	At least 3 years comprehensive warranty including that of battery from the manufacturer

Incentives Description	Incentives
Assured Buyback	6% of total vehicle cost capped at INR 10,000/-
Battery warranty of at least 5 years	4% of total vehicle cost capped at INR 6,000/-

Vehicle Segment	Max vehicle to be supported	Approx. battery size	Approx incentive @10,000 per kWh
Electric 2 wheeler	24,000	2 kWh	20,000/-
Electric 3 wheeler	70,000	5 kWh	50,000/-
Electric 4 wheeler	4000	15 kWh	150,000/-
4 wheeler (SHEV)	1000	1.3 kwh	13,000/-
Electric bus	1000	250 kwh	25,00,000/-

Criteria	Threshold value
Min. top speed	40 km/hr
Min. acceleration	0.65 m/s2
Max. electric energy consumption Not exceeding	7 kWh/100km
Warranty	At least 3 years comprehensive warranty including that of battery from the manufacturer

Sr No	Vehicle Segment	Incentives
1	Assured Buyback,	6% of total vehicle cost capped at INR 10,000/-
2	Battery warranty of at least 5 years	4% of total vehicle cost capped at INR 6,000/-

Category of vehicle	% Of subsidy	The maximum amount of subsidy
Electric Two-wheelers	15%	Rs. 5000/-
Electric Three-wheelers	15%	Rs.12,000/-
Electric Four Wheelers	15%	Rs. 1,00,000/-

Vehicle Segment	Incentive Available ( INR)	No. of Vehicles to be Incentivized	Maximum Incentive per Vehicle (INR)
Electric Two Wheeler (L1 & L2)	5000/kwh	1,00,000	10,000
Electric 3 Wheeler autos (L5M)	5000/kwh	15,000	30,000
Electric 3 Wheeler goods carrier (L5N)	5000/kwh	10,000	30,000
Electric 4 Wheeler cars (M1)	5000/kwh	10,000	1,50,000
Electric 4 Wheeler goods carrier (N1)	5000/kwh	10,000	1,00,000
Electric buses	10% of vehicle Cost	1,000	20,00,000

Vehicle Segment	Scrappage Incentive
Electric Two-Wheeler	INR 7,000
Electric Three-Wheeler	INR 15,000
Electric Four Wheeler	INR 25,000

CHARGING STATION	Incentive
Small Charging Stations	Capital Subsidy of 25% of the value of the charging equipment/machinery for first 300 charging stations up to a Maximum subsidy of INR 1,50,000
Medium Charging Stations	Capital Subsidy of 25% of the value of the charging equipment/machinery for the first 100 stations up to a Maximum subsidy of INR 2,00,000.
Large Charging Stations	Capital Subsidy of 25% of the value of the charging equipment/machinery for the first 100 stations up to a Maximum subsidy of INR 10,00,000.

Vehicle Segment	State Subsidy Amount (in Rs.)	Max ex-factory price to avail incentive (in Rs.)
2 wheeler	Rs. 10,000/- per kWh	1,.50,000
3 wheeler	Rs. 10,000/- per kWh	5,00,000
4-Wheeler	Rs. 10,000/- per kWh	15,00,000