What if all of the promised improvements in reduced fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from electric vehicles were upended by a disproportionate increase in private vehicles overall?
As we begin economic revival while continuing to deal with COVID–19, policymakers must remain vigilant regarding changing preferences for transport modes. Public transit systems could fall out of favour, at least temporarily, due to perceived and actual risks of the disease. As evident from experiences of western nations, effecting a behaviour change in a population that develops private vehicle dependence is a seemingly insurmountable task. A scenario where the majority of the transport demand is met via public transport will be vastly different from a scenario where private vehicles fulfil most of the transport needs. This is because public transit systems are much more energy efficient than private modes to meet the same travel demand. Another possibility can be the widespread uptake of shared mobility with limited private vehicle ownership and higher dependence on shared taxi rides and public transport. Beyond energy consumption, these scenarios also have consequences for road safety, congestion, and demand for parking space as they result in varying number of vehicles on the road.
CEEW’s recent study ‘Can Electric Mobility Support India’s Sustainable Economic Recovery Post COVID-19? ’ explored the outcomes of electrifying vehicles (30 per cent EV sales) under such scenarios in 2030 given their implications for sustainable mobility. The study finds that a scenario where public transport caters to majority of travel demand in 2030 results in 57 per cent fewer vehicles on road in contrast to a scenario where private vehicles dominate (figure 1). As a consequence, energy demand is also lowest in the public transport heavy scenario. Introducing EVs in such a paradigm results in the greatest gains from an EV transition (figure 2). Overall, the study looked at a business-as-usual- scenario (BAU), high public transport scenario (High PT), high private vehicle scenario (High PV), and a shared mobility scenario (Shared).
Figure 1: Projections on total vehicle stock in each scenario in 2030
Source: Soman, Abhinav, Harsimran Kaur, Himani Jain, and Karthik Ganesan. 2020. India’s Electric Vehicle Transition: Can Electric Mobility Support India’s Sustainable Economic Recovery Post COVID-19. New Delhi: Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
Note: High PV: High private vehicle scenario
BAU: Business as usual scenario
Shared: Shared mobility scenario
High PT: High public transport scenario
Figure 2. Energy demand under different scenarios
Source: Soman, Abhinav, Harsimran Kaur, Himani Jain, and Karthik Ganesan. 2020. India’s Electric Vehicle Transition: Can Electric Mobility Support India’s Sustainable Economic Recovery Post COVID-19. New Delhi: Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
Note: EV30: 30 per cent EV sales scenario with same mode share as BAU
High PT–EV30: High public transport mode share and 30 per cent EV sales
High PV–EV30: High private transport mode share with 30 per cent EV sales
Shared–EV30: High shared mobility mode share with 30 per cent EV sales
One of the key findings from this exercise is that while introducing electric mobility reduces energy consumption, it is most beneficial in scenarios that also simultaneously arrest the growth of private vehicles. For instance, as seen in figure 2, a rapid increase in private vehicle ownership by 2030 even with 30 per cent EV sales will see higher energy consumption from road passenger transport, in comparison to the BAU scenario with 5 per cent EV penetration. These findings underscore the need to shape the evolution of mode share for passenger transport alongside measures to introduce electric mobility.
A concerted campaign to promote non-motorised transport and public transit is critical in the days ahead if we are to realise the benefits of electrifying transportation. Other strategies like reducing trip lengths by designing 15-minute cities and increasing occupancy in vehicles will help in reducing energy consumption in passenger transport.
